浅析政策因素对中央空调行业的影响
“拯救”实体经济?
"Save" the real economy?
据媒体报道,温州官方曾表示,放松楼市限购,允许本地户籍家庭在市区购买第二套住房,是为了解套企业在房地产中所困资金,从而盘活资金链,拯救不断下滑的实体经济。温州一大型房企负责人透露,温州市发改委、住建委主要领导曾“问计”开发商,“主要意图是拯救实体经济”,因为温州很多企业主都参与了“盖房”、“炒房”,如今房价相比最高峰时已下降了百分之三四十,很多企业主均被房产套牢,从而直接影响了实体企业的资金流。安徽铜陵市有关部门则称,新政是为了合理引导住房消费和房地产开发,保持房地产产业持续稳定健康发展。
According to media reports, wenzhou, the official said, loosen the
housing purchase, allowing local household families in urban areas to
buy second homes, is to understand enterprise trapped in the real estate
fund, so as to revitalize the capital chain, save the declining of the
real economy. , head of a large enterprise, wenzhou, wenzhou development
and reform commission, the commission leaders had "advice" developers,
"the main purpose is to save the real economy", because a lot of
business owners in wenzhou have participated in the "building",
"speculation", now the house prices have dropped by 30 - when compared
with the peak, many business owners are real estate hold up, which
directly affects the entity enterprise's cash flow. Authorities in
tongling, anhui province, said the New Deal was designed to properly
guide housing consumption and real estate development, and keep the real
estate industry stable and healthy.
放松楼市限购,盘活企业被楼市套牢的资金,领导干部们的水平就是高!但是,谁能保证企业主被楼市套牢的资金,盘活后就是回到实体经济中去?而盘活企业资金的代价,则很可能是套牢百姓的钱,当百姓的钱都被房地产套牢的时候,谁来购买企业生产出来的产品呢?我国房价过高已是不争的事实,房价高地价就高,厂家租金自然也不会便宜。放松限购等于是在维护楼市价格,对实体经济而言,房租过高,必然会极大提升生产成本。因此,对实体经济而言,放松“限购”未必有多少实质性的好处。
Relax the housing restriction, the company is locked in the housing
market, leading cadres of the level is high! But who can guarantee that
business owners will be locked up in the housing market and then return
to the real economy? While the cost of living corporate money is likely
to be the money of the people, who will buy the products when the
people's money is locked up in real estate? Our country house price is
exorbitant already is undisputed fact, house price is high land price is
high, the factory rent is natural also not cheap. The relaxation of the
purchase limit and so on maintain the housing price, for the real
economy, the rent is too high, will inevitably raise the production cost
greatly. So there is not necessarily much tangible benefit to the real
economy.
尽管放松限购未必能“拯救”实体经济,但作为房地产的关联行业,暖通空调企业对该项政策仍然充满期待。放松限购后,中国房地产市场将会迎来怎样的机遇和挑战?中央空调行业能否再迎来一次发展的黄金期?
Although it is unlikely to "save" the real economy, hvac companies are
still looking forward to the policy as a real estate industry. What
opportunities and challenges will China's property market take after it
is relaxed? Can the central air conditioning industry have another
golden period of development?
“微”政策也值得期待
The "micro" policy is also expected
暖通空调产品和房地产市场的命运可谓息息相关……
The fate of hvac products and real estate markets is closely linked...
自2011年1月26日国务院发布新一轮房地产市场调控政策后,“限购”成为全国房地产市场的关键词,北京、上海、广州、南京、天津、石家庄、贵阳、厦门、宁波等城市相继出台调控细则,通过限购、税收、信贷等措施,落实“新国八条”调控政策。随后,北京、天津等城市楼市成交量跌幅超五成,上海房地产市场出现了量价齐跌的局面。与之对应的是,中央空调2012年的表现也十分低迷,甚至出现了整个行业的销量下滑。进入2013年后,随着购房者需求的逐步释放,一线城市商品住宅成交量回升,空调制冷行业才逐步走出低迷,复苏趋势明显。据暖通行业权威媒体统计,2013年,中国中央空调市场实现总销量636亿元,相比2012年度增长率为14.6%。
Since January 26, 2011 promulgated by the state council after a new
round of real estate market regulation policy, "restricted" has become
the national real estate market of the keywords, Beijing, Shanghai,
guangzhou, nanjing, xiamen, ningbo, tianjin, shijiazhuang, guiyang and
other cities have issued regulation rules, through the purchase, tax,
credit and other measures, the implementation of the "new eight"
regulation and control policy. Then, in Beijing, tianjin and other
cities, the volume of the property market dropped by more than 50%, the
Shanghai real estate market showed a situation of falling prices. In
contrast, the central air conditioner's performance in 2012 was also
very low, even as sales fell across the industry. After entering 2013,
with the gradual release of the demand of buyers, the volume of
residential sales in the first-tier cities recovered, and the
air-conditioning refrigeration industry gradually emerged from the
downturn, and the recovery trend was obvious. In 2013, China's central
air-conditioning market reached 63.6 billion yuan, compared with 14.6
percent in 2012, according to the hvac authoritative media.